Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 49.15%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 24.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Grimsby Town win it was 0-1 (8.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Northampton Town | Draw | Grimsby Town | 
| 49.15% ( | 26.01% ( | 24.84% ( | 
| Both teams to score 48.67% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 45.23% ( | 54.77% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 23.92% ( | 76.08% ( | 
| Northampton Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 77.68% ( | 22.32% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.21% ( | 55.79% ( | 
| Grimsby Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 62.66% ( | 37.34% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.87% ( | 74.12% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Northampton Town | Draw | Grimsby Town | 
| 1-0 @ 12.49% ( 2-0 @ 9.37% ( 2-1 @ 9.23% ( 3-0 @ 4.69% ( 3-1 @ 4.62% ( 3-2 @ 2.27% ( 4-0 @ 1.76% 4-1 @ 1.73% Other @ 2.98% Total : 49.14%  | 1-1 @ 12.31% 0-0 @ 8.33% ( 2-2 @ 4.55% ( Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.01%  | 0-1 @ 8.21% ( 1-2 @ 6.07% ( 0-2 @ 4.04% ( 1-3 @ 1.99% ( 2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0-3 @ 1.33% ( Other @ 1.71% Total : 24.84%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 36 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 73 | 
| 2 | Stevenage | 36 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 67 | 
| 3 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 37 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 66 | 
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 36 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 58 | 35 | 23 | 65 | 
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 60 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 36 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 60 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 59 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 56 | 
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 55 | 
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 37 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 52 | 
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 51 | 
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 36 | 15 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 50 | 
| 13 | Walsall | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 48 | 
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 48 | 
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 45 | 
| 16 | Newport CountyNewport | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 | 
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 | 
| 18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 36 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 42 | 
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 37 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 38 | 
| 20 | Gillingham | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 38 | 
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 36 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 32 | 
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 66 | -26 | 31 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 33 | 57 | -24 | 26 | 
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