

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 53.08%. A win for Feyenoord had a probability of 25.48% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.96%) and 1-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Feyenoord win was 1-2 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 53.08% ( | 21.44% ( | 25.48% ( |
| Both teams to score 64.52% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.8% ( | 34.19% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.91% ( | 56.08% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.88% ( | 13.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.24% ( | 39.76% ( |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.27% ( | 25.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.34% ( | 60.66% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 2-1 @ 9.45% ( 2-0 @ 6.96% ( 1-0 @ 6.86% ( 3-1 @ 6.4% ( 3-0 @ 4.72% ( 3-2 @ 4.34% ( 4-1 @ 3.25% ( 4-0 @ 2.39% ( 4-2 @ 2.21% ( 5-1 @ 1.32% ( 4-3 @ 1% ( 5-0 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 3.21% Total : 53.08% | 1-1 @ 9.31% ( 2-2 @ 6.42% ( 0-0 @ 3.38% ( 3-3 @ 1.97% ( Other @ 0.38% Total : 21.44% | 1-2 @ 6.32% ( 0-1 @ 4.58% ( 0-2 @ 3.11% ( 2-3 @ 2.9% ( 1-3 @ 2.86% ( 0-3 @ 1.41% ( 2-4 @ 0.99% ( 1-4 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 2.35% Total : 25.48% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 78 | 28 | 50 | 79 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 84 | 36 | 48 | 71 |
| 3 | Ajax | 32 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 82 | 34 | 48 | 66 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 64 | 33 | 31 | 64 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 58 | 26 | 32 | 58 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 36 | 15 | 53 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 45 | 6 | 51 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 42 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 41 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 38 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 37 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 34 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 39 | 66 | -27 | 33 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 29 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 30 | 59 | -29 | 28 |
| R | Groningen | 32 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 31 | 64 | -33 | 18 |
| R | Cambuur | 32 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 65 | -44 | 16 |
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