Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 68.68%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Cambuur had a probability of 13.56%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-1 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.19%), while for a Cambuur win it was 2-1 (3.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cambuur | Draw | Ajax |
| 13.56% ( | 17.76% ( | 68.68% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.6% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.28% ( | 35.71% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.22% ( | 57.78% ( |
| Cambuur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.4% ( | 38.59% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.66% ( | 75.34% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.55% ( | 9.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.26% ( | 31.74% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Cambuur | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 3.9% ( 1-0 @ 3.47% ( 2-0 @ 1.65% ( 3-2 @ 1.46% ( 3-1 @ 1.24% ( Other @ 1.84% Total : 13.56% | 1-1 @ 8.19% ( 2-2 @ 4.6% ( 0-0 @ 3.65% ( 3-3 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 17.76% | 0-2 @ 10.14% ( 1-2 @ 9.66% ( 0-1 @ 8.6% ( 0-3 @ 7.98% ( 1-3 @ 7.6% ( 0-4 @ 4.71% ( 1-4 @ 4.48% ( 2-3 @ 3.62% ( 0-5 @ 2.22% ( 2-4 @ 2.13% ( 1-5 @ 2.12% ( 2-5 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 4.4% Total : 68.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 59 | 25 | 34 | 61 |
| 2 | Ajax | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 72 | 28 | 44 | 55 |
| 3 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 67 | 31 | 36 | 53 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 53 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 47 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 46 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 38 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 26 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 35 | 26 | 9 | 34 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 34 |
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 32 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
| 13 | FC VolendamVolendam | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 56 | -25 | 26 |
| 14 | Vitesse | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 24 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 23 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 21 |
| 17 | Groningen | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 26 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20 | 49 | -29 | 16 |
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