Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 71.1%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for NEC had a probability of 13.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.08%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.43%), while for a NEC win it was 2-1 (3.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Ajax |
| 13.25% ( | 15.64% ( | 71.1% ( |
| Both teams to score 63.59% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.44% ( | 25.56% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.35% ( | 45.65% ( |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.96% ( | 32.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.49% ( | 68.5% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.57% ( | 6.42% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 75.95% ( | 24.05% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 3.66% ( 1-0 @ 2.34% ( 3-2 @ 1.91% ( 3-1 @ 1.39% ( 2-0 @ 1.33% ( Other @ 2.63% Total : 13.25% | 1-1 @ 6.43% ( 2-2 @ 5.02% ( 0-0 @ 2.06% ( 3-3 @ 1.74% ( Other @ 0.39% Total : 15.64% | 1-2 @ 8.83% ( 1-3 @ 8.08% ( 0-2 @ 7.75% ( 0-3 @ 7.1% ( 0-1 @ 5.65% ( 1-4 @ 5.54% ( 0-4 @ 4.87% ( 2-3 @ 4.6% ( 2-4 @ 3.16% ( 1-5 @ 3.04% ( 0-5 @ 2.68% ( 2-5 @ 1.73% ( 1-6 @ 1.39% ( 0-6 @ 1.22% ( 3-4 @ 1.2% ( Other @ 4.27% Total : 71.1% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 24 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
| 2 | Ajax | 24 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 66 | 23 | 43 | 52 |
| 3 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 50 | 28 | 22 | 50 |
| 4 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 61 | 28 | 33 | 49 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 41 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 36 | 26 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 37 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 32 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 24 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 29 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 23 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 23 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 24 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 21 | 58 | -37 | 20 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 43 | -22 | 18 |
| 17 | Groningen | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 23 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 39 | -26 | 13 |
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