

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 66.82%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 15.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.19%) and 1-3 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 2-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Ajax |
| 15.65% ( | 17.53% ( | 66.82% ( |
| Both teams to score 62.5% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.37% ( | 29.62% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.26% ( | 50.73% ( |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.12% ( | 31.87% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.68% ( | 68.32% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.74% ( | 8.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 71.14% ( | 28.86% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 4.29% ( 1-0 @ 3.01% ( 3-2 @ 2.04% ( 2-0 @ 1.72% ( 3-1 @ 1.64% ( Other @ 2.95% Total : 15.65% | 1-1 @ 7.51% ( 2-2 @ 5.35% ( 0-0 @ 2.63% ( 3-3 @ 1.7% ( Other @ 0.34% Total : 17.53% | 1-2 @ 9.36% ( 0-2 @ 8.19% ( 1-3 @ 7.78% ( 0-3 @ 6.8% ( 0-1 @ 6.57% ( 1-4 @ 4.85% ( 2-3 @ 4.45% ( 0-4 @ 4.24% ( 2-4 @ 2.77% ( 1-5 @ 2.42% ( 0-5 @ 2.12% ( 2-5 @ 1.38% ( 3-4 @ 1.06% ( 1-6 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 3.83% Total : 66.82% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 18 |
| 2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 16 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 14 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Heracles | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | PEC Zwolle | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Heerenveen | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 6 |
| 13 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Ajax | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 1 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 1 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
