

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 43.36%. A win for Mallorca had a probability of 29.65% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Mallorca win was 0-1 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Mallorca |
| 43.36% ( | 26.99% ( | 29.65% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.25% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.29% ( | 55.71% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.15% ( | 76.85% ( |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.52% ( | 25.48% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.68% ( | 60.32% ( |
| Mallorca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.08% ( | 33.92% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.41% ( | 70.59% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Mallorca |
| 1-0 @ 11.81% ( 2-1 @ 8.73% ( 2-0 @ 8.08% ( 3-1 @ 3.98% ( 3-0 @ 3.68% ( 3-2 @ 2.15% ( 4-1 @ 1.36% ( 4-0 @ 1.26% ( Other @ 2.3% Total : 43.35% | 1-1 @ 12.77% 0-0 @ 8.64% ( 2-2 @ 4.72% ( Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.99% | 0-1 @ 9.34% ( 1-2 @ 6.91% ( 0-2 @ 5.05% ( 1-3 @ 2.49% ( 0-3 @ 1.82% ( 2-3 @ 1.7% ( Other @ 2.33% Total : 29.65% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 99 | 39 | 60 | 85 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 64 | 30 | 34 | 73 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 54 | 26 | 28 | 70 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 67 | 49 | 18 | 67 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 57 | 56 | 1 | 52 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 51 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 51 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 47 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 |
| 13 | Getafe | 37 | 11 | 9 | 17 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 15 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 41 |
| 16 | Sevilla | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 41 |
| 17 | GironaGirona | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 41 |
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 |
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 |
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