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Basel
Swiss Super League | Gameweek 38
May 24, 2025 at 5pm UK
St. Jakob-Park (Basel)
Luzern

Basel
vs.
Luzern

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Swiss Super League clash between Basel and Luzern, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Young Boys 6-2 Basel
Sunday, May 18 at 1.15pm in Swiss Super League
Last Game: Luzern 3-4 Servette
Sunday, May 18 at 3.30pm in Swiss Super League

We say: Basel 3-1 Luzern

Entertainment is all but guaranteed, as at least five goals have been scored by either side in four of Basel's last five Super League matches. Luzern must flood forward in search of a win that would keep their European dreams alive, so the new Swiss champions can capitalise by clinically picking them off. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Basel win with a probability of 62.03%. A draw has a probability of 19.3% and a win for Luzern has a probability of 18.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (8.08%) and 3-1 (7.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.4%), while for a Luzern win it is 1-2 (5%).

Result
BaselDrawLuzern
62.03% (0.71 0.71) 19.27% (-0.262 -0.26) 18.69% (-0.45 -0.45)
Both teams to score 62.5% (0.133 0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.5% (0.542 0.54)32.5% (-0.544 -0.54)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.86% (0.626 0.63)54.14% (-0.628 -0.63)
Basel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.85% (0.333 0.33)10.14% (-0.335 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.64% (0.759 0.76)33.35% (-0.762 -0.76)
Luzern Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.56% (-0.11200000000001 -0.11)30.44% (0.11 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.35% (-0.133 -0.13)66.65% (0.131 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Basel 62.03%
    Luzern 18.69%
    Draw 19.27%
BaselDrawLuzern
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-0 @ 8.08% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 7.34% (0.08 0.08)
1-0 @ 7.07% (-0.104 -0.1)
3-0 @ 6.17% (0.085 0.09)
3-2 @ 4.36% (0.034 0.03)
4-1 @ 4.2% (0.105 0.11)
4-0 @ 3.53% (0.099 0.1)
4-2 @ 2.5% (0.055 0.06)
5-1 @ 1.92% (0.075 0.08)
5-0 @ 1.62% (0.068 0.07)
5-2 @ 1.14% (0.041 0.04)
4-3 @ 0.99% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 62.03%
1-1 @ 8.4% (-0.15 -0.15)
2-2 @ 5.72% (-0.036 -0.04)
0-0 @ 3.09% (-0.091 -0.09)
3-3 @ 1.73% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 19.27%
1-2 @ 5% (-0.104 -0.1)
0-1 @ 3.67% (-0.119 -0.12)
2-3 @ 2.27% (-0.022 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.18% (-0.078 -0.08)
1-3 @ 1.98% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 3.59%
Total : 18.69%

Who will win Saturday's Swiss Super League clash between Basel and Luzern?

Basel
Draw
Luzern
Basel
100%
Draw
0.0%
Luzern
0.0%
3
Head to Head
Mar 9, 2025 3.30pm
Gameweek 27
Luzern
1-1
Basel
Knezevic (78')
Traore (41')
Leon Barisic (31'), Mendes (76')
Feb 6, 2025 7.30pm
Gameweek 22
Basel
2-1
Luzern
Shaqiri (4' pen., 57' pen.)
Avdullahu (51'), Mendes (89'), Baro (90+3')
Winkler (1')
Knezevic (58'), Kadak (81')
Cigaņiks (90+4')
Sep 29, 2024 3.30pm
Gameweek 8
Luzern
1-0
Basel
Jaquez (78')
Beloko (48'), Ottiger (87')

Vouilloz (45+4'), Avdullahu (56'), Fink (85')
May 5, 2024 1.15pm
Gameweek 34
Basel
1-1
Luzern
Barry (52')
Barry (15'), Avdullahu (43'), Kade (54'), Ruegg (86')
Meyer (46')
Dorn (62'), Jasari (69'), Winkler (78')
Apr 21, 2024 3.30pm
Gameweek 33
Luzern
1-1
Basel
Grbic (70')
Jasari (78')
Kade (2')
Kade (41')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
Championship Round
1Basel37217987434470
2Servette37171196152962
3Young Boys371791159481160
4LuganoLugano37158145457-353
5Lausanne SportLausanne371410135951852
6Luzern371410136660652
Relegation Round
1FC Zurich38158155657-153
2St GallenSt Gallen381313125253-152
3Sion381111164757-1044
4FC WinterthurWinterthur38117204368-2540
5Grasshopper ZurichGrasshopper38912174353-1039
6Yverdon Sport38912174068-2839
 
Regular Season
1Basel33187872324061
2Servette33151085243955
3Young Boys33158104942753
4Luzern331491061511051
5LuganoLugano33147124847149
6Lausanne SportLausanne33138125244847
7St GallenSt Gallen331211104643347
8FC Zurich33138124448-447
9Sion3399154151-1036
10Grasshopper ZurichGrasshopper33712143546-1133
11Yverdon Sport3389163357-2433
12FC WinterthurWinterthur3386193261-2930


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