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French Open 2025: Who could dominate at Roland Garros after Rafael Nadal retirement?

Sports Mole looks at the main contenders for French Open glory following the retirement of King of Clay and 14-time champion Rafael Nadal.

There remains a lingering feeling that Rafael Nadal did not bid a proper farewell to his favourite playground last year at Court Philippe Chatrier.

The 14-time French Open champion had been vague about his future and possible retirement plans in the lead-up to tournaments for his favourite Grand Slam, stating that he would only play if he was in the physical condition to do so.

Considering the uncertainty surrounding Nadal's future at the time, what the 22-time Slam champion needed was a favourable draw to build momentum in Paris; however, what the Spaniard got was what fans who know their tennis dreaded: a first-round tussle with Alexander Zverev.

That tricky round-one matchup, a rematch of the 2022 semi-final where the German exited in a wheelchair after rolling his ankle two tight sets in, meant that the former world No. 1 could exit in the opening round at Roland Garros for the first time.

Although the 14-time holder of the Coupe des Mousquetaires served to even the match in set two, Zverev broke back and ultimately sealed a three-set win. Game. Set. Match. The King of Clay had lost for only the fourth time in Paris and to his third opponent after Robin Soderling and his greatest rival, Novak Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal reacts to the crowd after his French Open exit on May 27, 2024© Imago

With the only man to retain the Coupe des Mousquetaires this millennium no longer on the ATP Tour, Sports Mole takes a look at the possible contenders for the title in Paris this year and who could dominate in the wake of the retirement of the sport's greatest clay court player.


Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic headline top challengers

Carlos Alcaraz beat Jannik Sinner for the fourth match running at the Rome Masters on May 18, 2025© Imago

While many might turn their noses up at the inclusion of Djokovic as a possible contender, the 24-time Grand Slam winner's presence is not without cause.

Despite the question marks surrounding the 38-year-old, whose 2025 has seen him have deep runs at the Australian Open and Miami Masters - reaching the semi-final and final respectively - or exit early in tournaments, evidenced by swift losses in Doha, Indian Wells, Monte-Carlo and Madrid, the three-time French Open champion has not lost on the dirt in Paris since the 2022 quarter-final exit at the hands of Nadal.

Although the Serbian superstar was taken to deciders by Lorenzo Musetti and Francisco Cerundolo, the 99-time titlist outlasted both men before succumbing to a knee injury prior to his quarter-final with Casper Ruud.

A thorny path to a potential fourth title in the French capital could bring him face-to-face with Daniil Medvedev, Zverev, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz if it follows form, highlighting the need to play high-level tennis over the next fortnight.

How Djokovic fares is contingent on his motivation and his body not breaking down over the fortnight in Paris; the former is proven by deep runs Down Under, where he beat Carlos Alcaraz, and in Miami, where he fell to protege Jakub Mensik in the title match.

Possibly standing in Djokovic's path to Slam No. 25 is Sinner, the current No. 1 player on the men's tour, who replaced the Serbian as the top-ranked star after the 99-time titlist's withdrawal around 12 months ago.

While uncertainty surrounded the 23-year-old after his three-month suspension heading into the Rome Masters on home soil, the Italian overcame a slow start to surge into the title match, obliterating clay specialist, Madrid champion and two-time Roland Garros runner-up Ruud en route to falling to friendly rival Alcaraz.

Despite the top-ranked player's rounded game being too much to handle for most on the men's tour, Sinner enters his sixth French Open with one burning question: how does he solve his Alcaraz problem?

The Spanish sensation, who claimed a fourth consecutive victory over the world No. 1 in Rome to snap the Italian's 26-match winning run, bids to become only the second man after Nadal since the turn of the millennium to successfully defend the title in Paris.

While the chasing pack stumbled during Sinner's absence on the tour, Alcaraz enhanced his prospects of securing consecutive French Open titles as he aims to defend the Channel Slam claimed 12 months ago.

That ambition was strengthened by clinching maiden titles in Monte-Carlo and Rome, either side of making another final in Barcelona, where Holger Rune beat him.

Having already proven his clay credentials over the years, the 22-year-old, who has now emulated Nadal and Djokovic as the third man to claim every major clay title, undoubtedly enters this year's French Open as the leading favourite to leave Paris with the Coupe des Mousquetaires.


Zverev, Ruud and the rest of the contenders

Alexander Zverev looking dejected at the Hamburg Open on May 21, 2025© Imago

While Zverev and Ruud ideally should be a step below the leading trio, Musetti's stock is arguably higher than last year's runner-up and three-time Grand Slam finalist, whose form has plummeted since his run to the Aussie Open final and the Norwegian, a two-time finalist in Paris, despite the Madrid champion's maiden Masters title.

Although the German claimed the Munich title, that successful run on home turf was anomalous for the 28-year-old, whose deepest run in Monte Carlo, Madrid or Rome was a quarter-final in Italy, where Musetti ousted him.

Exiting early in Hamburg this week to Alexandre Muller further stresses the notion that the world No. 3 is not heading into the second Major of the year in peak form. Twelve months back, the 23-time tour champion was a victor in Rome; this year, he could not get past in-form Musetti.

The Italian No. 2 player advanced to the last four of the major Masters 1000 events preceding the second Grand Slam of the year, falling to Alcaraz in the Monte-Carlo decider, but an already strong player on clay enters this year's tournament in Paris with his reputation higher than ever.

Having twice previously taken Djokovic to five sets on Philippe-Chatrier, with last year's 3:07 AM finish the latest in the tournament's history, the Italian may still fall short against the best players on tour, but heads into this year's Slam aware of his loftier status and belief that he can finally outdo his previous third-round ceiling in 2025.


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Written by
Anthony Brown
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Who will win the 2025 French Open?

Novak Djokovic
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Carlos Alcaraz
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Jannik Sinner
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Alexander Zverev
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