Preview: Wimbledon: Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Fresh off a comeback win over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Jan-Lennard Struff faces three-peat-chasing Carlos Alcaraz in Friday’s Wimbledon third round for a place in the last 16.

The 35-year-old German is into the third round in consecutive years but has never gone beyond this stage, underscoring the challenge facing the world No. 125 against the favourite at this year's tournament.

Match preview

Whatever Struff achieves at the All England Club this year, the veteran will look back on his second-round win over Felix Auger-Aliassime as the pivotal match.

Down in the match after losing the first set, the German trailed in the second set tie-break and faced set points against the Canadian; however, the world No. 125 rallied to claim the shootout before darkness meant the match was interrupted until Thursday.

The 35-year-old’s momentum was not halted, though, as he claimed sets three and four to complete the turnaround, defeating the 25th seed 3-6, 7-6[9], 6-3, 6-4 to reach the third round in consecutive years for the first time since 2018 and 2019.

However, Struff has never entered the second week at Wimbledon, where he has reached round three in four appearances, highlighting his broader struggles at the event.

Victories in rounds one and two have seen the German veteran record wins eight and nine at the Championships, and he strives to enter double figures for wins at the All England Club, where he currently holds a 9-10 record.

Having already made it this far, Struff has already outdone his Grand Slam performance at the last three Majors, having exited in each tournament opener at the US, Australian, and French Opens, but he faces the ultimate test in Alcaraz on Friday.

While the second seed, who has had one extra day to prepare, is the undoubted favourite to advance to the last 16 for the fourth straight year, the two-time defending champion is yet to hit top form at the All England Club.

After facing a tournament-opening five-setter against Italian veteran Fabio Fognini on Monday, Alcaraz got the better of Wimbledon debutant Oliver Tarvet in straight sets on Wednesday, even if the Brit created multiple chances to break the second seed.

The 22-year-old did seem capable of playing at a higher level in the second-round win, highlighted by breaking back each time after Tarvet got the better of him, but the defending champion will know his level must improve as the tournament progresses.

Wednesday's 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 win extended the second seed's winning streak to 20, and the Spaniard, who has improved to 20-2 at the All England Club, seeks a 21st success and 17th on the trot to progress at SW19.

Defeating Tarvet saw the world No. 2 improve his tour-leading 44-5 record for the season, and he is the undeniable favourite to record a 45th success in 2025, aiming to build momentum entering the second week at the third Grand Slam of the year.

Having set even more milestones after his last victory at the All England Club—becoming the second-fastest man to 20 wins and becoming the youngest to hit 30 consecutive wins at Roland Garros and Wimbledon—the Spanish sensation is expected to continue his ambition for a third straight title by avoiding an upset against an opponent who typically gives him a stern challenge.

Tournament so far

Jan-Lennard Struff:

First round: vs. Filip Misolic 6-2 5-7 6-3 6-4

Second round: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 3-6 7-6[9] 6-3 6-4

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Fabio Fognini 7-5 6-7[5] 7-5 2-6 6-1

Second round: vs. Oliver Tarvet 6-1 6-4 6-4

Head To Head

Madrid Masters (2024) - Round of 16: Alcaraz 6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(4)

Madrid Masters (2023) - Final: 6-4 3-6 6-3

Wimbledon (2022) - First round: Alcaraz 4-6 7-5 4-6 7-6(3) 6-4

French Open (2021) - Third round: Struff 6-4 7-6(3) 6-2

Alcaraz leads Struff 3-1 in their head-to-head, and while the Spaniard has claimed three consecutive wins, none have gone smoothly for the two-time Wimbledon champion.

Having been beaten in their first ATP Tour encounter at Roland Garros in 2021, a much younger Alcaraz needed five sets to eliminate the German veteran in the opening round at Wimbledon in 2022.

Their next two matches on the clay courts in Madrid have gone the distance, with Alcaraz claiming the 2023 final and their last-16 encounter 12 months ago.

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Although Alcaraz is the favourite to get the better of Struff, the German’s performance could be affected by a drawn-out second-round match against Auger-Aliassime.

With the Spaniard yet to hit peak performance, the veteran is expected to take a set off the defending champion; however, the second seed is expected to avoid an upset and advance to the last 16 to face Andrey Rublev or Adrian Mannarino.

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