Preview: Wimbledon: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Emma Raducanu - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka’s quest for yet another last-16 spot at Wimbledon faces its next hurdle against home favourite Emma Raducanu, who played commendably to reach the third round.

The British No. 1 outplayed 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova in straight sets on Wednesday, setting up a mouthwatering clash with the two-time semi-finalist at the Championships in their second tour-level encounter.

Match preview

Sabalenka faced a brief scare in her second-round match against Marie Bouzkova, who served for the opening set at 6-5; however, the top seed finally found success on the Czech player’s serve, breaking the former quarter-finalist at SW19 before taking the first-set tie-break.  

The Belarusian demonstrated her underrated variation, out-hitting her opponent, coming to the net when needed and showing her deft touch with well-executed drop shots in the eventual 7-6(4), 6-4 victory.  

Fresh from hitting 41 winners to 18 unforced errors, the 26-year-old, who has yet to drop a set, seems to be hitting her stride in performance and execution ahead of facing the 2021 US Open champion.  

Wednesday’s win marked her 44th of 2025 — the most on the women's tour — and she is eyeing her 45th win on Friday.  

Having reached the semi-finals in consecutive years in 2021 and 2023, Sabalenka, who has consistently made it to the last four after surviving rounds one and two, aims to continue that pattern by progressing deep at SW19 this year.

The world No. 1 cannot afford to look too far ahead, though, given her tricky draw, which next pits her against a former Slam winner and player who appears to be gaining momentum.  

Raducanu was expected to fall in two sets to Vondrousova, the 2023 champion at the All England Club and recent Berlin winner, but the 22-year-old Brit played arguably her finest tennis on grass to topple the three-time WTA titlist 6-3, 6-3.  

The victory means the world No. 40 is just one more win away from matching her main-draw debut run in 2021 and last year's impressive run to reach the last 16.  

However, beating the top-ranked and motivated women's star will require the 2021 US Open champion to play even better tennis to survive the onslaught from the other side of the net, and it will be interesting to see if she plays as fearlessly and pressure-free as promised.

Despite the British No. 1's optimism, an underwhelming career record against top 10 players — having won just three of 15 matches — threatens to dampen hopes of an upset victory in front of the partisan crowd at SW19.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Carson Branstine 6-1 7-5

Second round: vs. Marie Bouzkova 7-6[4] 6-4

Emma Raducanu:

First round: vs. Mingge Xu 6-3 6-3

Second round: vs. Marketa Vondrousova 6-3 6-3

Head To Head

Indian Wells (2024) - Third round: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5

In their only tour-level encounter, Sabalenka previously defeated Raducanu in straight sets at Indian Wells last year.  

Though Raducanu was successful only once from 10 break chances in that match, she can take encouragement and will aim to capitalise on similar opportunities this time.  

Nevertheless, her 1-5 record against top 10 players in 2025 — including her win over Emma Navarro in Miami in March — and her overall 3-12 record against the elite underlines her challenges against the top-tier players.

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

It is hard to see Raducanu matching the power and occasional guile of the world No. 1, even with the crowd supporting her.

While some might back the British No. 1 to nick a set, the expectation is that Sabalenka will overpower Raducanu in straight sets, advancing to face either Elise Mertens or Elina Svitolina in the last 16.

Previews by email