Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 46.77%. A win for Club America had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Club America win was 0-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.