Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirassol win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Sport Recife had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mirassol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Sport Recife win was 0-1 (9.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mirassol in this match.

Result
Mirassol	Draw	Sport Recife
42.56% ( 0.04)	27.31% ( 0)	30.13% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 48.55% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.3% (

-0.03)

56.7% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.34% (

-0.03)

77.66% (

0.03)

Mirassol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.65% (

26.34% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.51% (

0.01)

61.49% (

-0.01)

Sport Recife Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.92% (

-0.05)

34.08% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.24% (

-0.05)

70.76% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Mirassol 42.55%

Sport Recife 30.13%

Draw 27.3%

Mirassol	Draw	Sport Recife
1-0 @ 11.97% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.6% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.99% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.82% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.55% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.28% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.18% ( 0) Other @ 2.11% Total : 42.55%	1-1 @ 12.89% 0-0 @ 8.98% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0) Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.3%	0-1 @ 9.66% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.94% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0) Other @ 2.31% Total : 30.13%