Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 1
May 24, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
1 - 0
Progreso

Trasante (71' og., 71' og.)
Morales (9'), Morales (9'), Vargas (27'), Vargas (27'), Romero (41'), Romero (41'), Oliva (90'), Oliva (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Nahuel Moreira Morales (41'), Nahuel Moreira Morales (41'), Olivera (81'), Olivera (81'), Garcia (82'), Garcia (82')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Progreso.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 2-1 Defensor
Sunday, May 18 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Progreso

All competitions
Last Game: Progreso 1-2 Juventud
Sunday, May 18 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 62.08%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 15.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.

Result
NacionalDrawProgreso
62.08% (-0.244 -0.24)21.97% (0.349 0.35)15.95% (-0.11 -0.11)
Both teams to score 47.38% (-1.301 -1.3)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.37% (-1.625 -1.63)49.62% (1.62 1.62)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.35% (-1.474 -1.47)71.64% (1.469 1.47)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.55% (-0.622 -0.62)15.45% (0.617 0.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.69% (-1.17 -1.17)44.3% (1.165 1.17)
Progreso Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.03% (-1.121 -1.12)43.96% (1.117 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.9% (-0.938 -0.94)80.09% (0.93300000000001 0.93)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 62.07%
    Progreso 15.95%
    Draw 21.96%
NacionalDrawProgreso
1-0 @ 12.68% (0.56 0.56)
2-0 @ 11.84% (0.27 0.27)
2-1 @ 9.74% (-0.073 -0.07)
3-0 @ 7.37% (0.012 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.06% (-0.179 -0.18)
4-0 @ 3.44% (-0.069 -0.07)
4-1 @ 2.83% (-0.148 -0.15)
3-2 @ 2.49% (-0.154 -0.15)
5-0 @ 1.29% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-2 @ 1.16% (-0.099 -0.1)
5-1 @ 1.06% (-0.079 -0.08)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 62.07%
1-1 @ 10.42% (0.15 0.15)
0-0 @ 6.79% (0.437 0.44)
2-2 @ 4% (-0.157 -0.16)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 21.96%
0-1 @ 5.58% (0.196 0.2)
1-2 @ 4.28% (-0.073 -0.07)
0-2 @ 2.29% (0.011 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.17% (-0.057 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.1% (-0.079 -0.08)
Other @ 1.52%
Total : 15.95%

Head to Head
Feb 16, 2025 8pm
Gameweek 3
Progreso
1-5
Nacional
Fernandez (52')
Jorge Alberto Silva (25'), Alberto Ordonez Esterilla (47'), Colombino (53'), Silvera (55'), Gonzalez (67'), Pinheiro Goggia (81')
Recoba (11'), Herazo (17'), Lopez (36' pen., 63'), Gustavo Arady Mata (84')
Millan (41'), Lopez (49'), Oliva (55')
Sep 30, 2024 12am
Gameweek 5
Progreso
0-3
Nacional

Alles (18'), Asconeguy (33'), Gonzalez (60'), Lemmo (78'), Castillo (81')
Coates (45+2'), Mereles de la Quintana (60'), Recoba (66')
Castro (12'), Bentancourt (13')
Mar 23, 2024 9.30pm
Gameweek 5
Nacional
0-0
Progreso
Zabala (72'), Santander (89'), Polenta (90+7')
Viera (18'), Marta (31'), Colman (60'), Lemmo (87'), Silva (89')
Sep 19, 2021 7.30pm
Gameweek 2
Nacional
0-1
Progreso

Rodriguez (52'), Ocampo (60'), Polenta (89'), Fernandez (90+4')
Colman (57')
Olaizola (4'), Asconeguy (45'), Andrada (64'), Gottesman (90+4')
May 23, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 2
Progreso
1-3
Nacional
Fernandez (59')
Ramis (21'), Alles (33'), Asconeguy (43'), Paiva (87')
Rojo (68')
Bergessio (37'), Fernandez (41'), Trezza (87')
Bergessio (33'), Candido (51'), Ocampo (60'), Corujo (74'), Garcia (83')
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
Group 1
1Defensor SportingDefensor22005326
2Montevideo WanderersWanderers22003126
3PenarolPenarol21103124
4LiverpoolLiverpool20201102
5Cerro Largo201134-11
6CerroCerro201112-11
7Plaza ColoniaPlaza Colonia201113-21
8River PlateRiver Plate200213-20
Group 2
1Racing de MontevideoRacing22003036
2DanubioDanubio22003036
3NacionalNacional22003126
4Juventud21015503
5Boston RiverBoston River210134-13
6Montevideo City TorqueTorque200235-20
7ProgresoProgreso200202-20
8Miramar Misiones200203-30
 
Apertura
1LiverpoolLiverpool159512291332
2NacionalNacional1594235161931
3Juventud159332315830
4PenarolPenarol158342117427
5Defensor SportingDefensor157351712524
6Racing de MontevideoRacing156541410423
7Boston RiverBoston River156451617-122
8Cerro Largo155641516-121
9Plaza ColoniaPlaza Colonia155461313019
10Montevideo City TorqueTorque154561622-617
11ProgresoProgreso153661727-1015
12CerroCerro153661320-714
13Montevideo WanderersWanderers152671217-512
14DanubioDanubio151951217-512
15Miramar Misiones153391624-812
16River PlateRiver Plate152491020-1010
> Uruguayan Primera Division Full Table


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