Bahia
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 7, 2025 at 11pm UK
Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia
1 - 3
Nacional

Lucas (47')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Morales (57'), Lopez (69'), Millan (86')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Bahia and Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahia

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Bahia 1-0 Botafogo
Sunday, May 4 at 1am in Brasileiro

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 4-0 Cerro
Saturday, May 3 at 9.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 71.31%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 9.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.77%) and 3-0 (10.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.73%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (4.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.

Result
BahiaDrawNacional
71.31% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)19% (0.004999999999999 0)9.69% (0.0038999999999998 0)
Both teams to score 38.73%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.65% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)51.35% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.83% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)73.17% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Bahia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.85% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)13.14% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.18% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)39.81% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.59% (0.0030000000000001 0)55.4% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.88% (0.0030000000000001 0)88.12% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Score Analysis
    Bahia 71.3%
    Nacional 9.69%
    Draw 19%
BahiaDrawNacional
2-0 @ 14.99%
1-0 @ 14.77%
3-0 @ 10.14%
2-1 @ 8.85% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 5.99% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 5.15% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 3.04% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
5-0 @ 2.09% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 1.77%
5-1 @ 1.23% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 71.3%
1-1 @ 8.73% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-0 @ 7.28% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 2.61%
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 19%
0-1 @ 4.3% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-2 @ 2.58%
0-2 @ 1.27% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 1.55%
Total : 9.69%

How you voted: Bahia vs Nacional

Bahia
80.0%
Draw
0.0%
Nacional
20.0%
5
Head to Head
Apr 9, 2025 11pm
Group Stage
Nacional
0-1
Bahia

Ancheta (76'), Rodriguez (81'), Fabrizio Calione Fuentes (90+6')
Da Costa Farias (64')
Lucas (11'), Erick (45+1')
rhs 2.0
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