Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 14
May 3, 2025 at 9.30pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
4 - 0
Cerro

Petit Abad (27'), Vargas (48'), Herazo (80'), Morales (82')
Recoba (20'), Martin Villalba Jaume (85')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Villar (17'), Emanuel Cuello Azambuya (51'), Silvestre (74')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Cerro.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 3-1 Wanderers
Sunday, April 27 at 12.15am in Uruguayan Primera Division

Cerro

All competitions
Last Game: Cerro 1-2 Torque
Sunday, April 20 at 9.15pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 17.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (6.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawCerro
59% (-1.303 -1.3)23.68% (0.36 0.36)17.32% (0.945 0.95)
Both teams to score 45.2% (0.786 0.79)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.95% (0.065000000000005 0.07)54.05% (-0.064 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.52% (0.056000000000001 0.06)75.48% (-0.054999999999993 -0.05)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.92% (-0.44499999999999 -0.44)18.07% (0.445 0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51% (-0.767 -0.77)48.99% (0.768 0.77)
Cerro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.17% (1.252 1.25)44.83% (-1.251 -1.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.2% (0.988 0.99)80.8% (-0.98699999999999 -0.99)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 59%
    Cerro 17.32%
    Draw 23.67%
NacionalDrawCerro
1-0 @ 13.86% (-0.23 -0.23)
2-0 @ 11.85% (-0.38 -0.38)
2-1 @ 9.51% (0.032 0.03)
3-0 @ 6.76% (-0.319 -0.32)
3-1 @ 5.42% (-0.061 -0.06)
4-0 @ 2.89% (-0.181 -0.18)
4-1 @ 2.32% (-0.061 -0.06)
3-2 @ 2.18% (0.051 0.05)
5-0 @ 0.99% (-0.077 -0.08)
4-2 @ 0.93% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 59%
1-1 @ 11.12% (0.2 0.2)
0-0 @ 8.1% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.82% (0.144 0.14)
Other @ 0.64%
Total : 23.67%
0-1 @ 6.5% (0.207 0.21)
1-2 @ 4.46% (0.229 0.23)
0-2 @ 2.61% (0.17 0.17)
1-3 @ 1.19% (0.1 0.1)
2-3 @ 1.02% (0.073 0.07)
Other @ 1.54%
Total : 17.32%

Head to Head
Nov 2, 2024 10pm
Gameweek 10
Nacional
2-0
Cerro
Galeano (45+1'), Lopez (55')
Castro (31')

Triunfo (54'), Macelli (84')
Jun 9, 2024 10pm
Gameweek 1
Cerro
3-0
Nacional
Ramirez (14'), Petillo Mediza (84'), Gonzalez (88')
Berrios (76')
Abero (29')

Santander (65'), Izquierdo (67'), Castro (69')
Apr 28, 2024 10pm
Gameweek 10
Cerro
1-2
Nacional
Macelli (61')
Abero (36'), Rodriguez (90+6')
Carneiro (40' pen.), Oliva (70')
Antoni (60'), Oliva (75')
Oct 15, 2023 10.30pm
Gameweek 5
Nacional
2-1
Cerro
Rodriguez (17'), Gigliotti (70')
Lozano (10'), Martinez (33')
Rodriguez (12')
Rodriguez (25'), Coronel (31'), Tizon (43'), Abero (51'), Fernandez (67')
Jun 3, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 1
Cerro
1-1
Nacional
Nandin (1')
Perez (45+1'), Denis (83'), Souza (90+3')
Pereiro (79')
Rodriguez (18'), Pereiro (79')
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
Group 1
1Defensor SportingDefensor22005326
2Montevideo WanderersWanderers22003126
3PenarolPenarol21103124
4LiverpoolLiverpool20201102
5Cerro Largo201134-11
6CerroCerro201112-11
7Plaza ColoniaPlaza Colonia201113-21
8River PlateRiver Plate200213-20
Group 2
1Racing de MontevideoRacing22003036
2DanubioDanubio22003036
3NacionalNacional22003126
4Juventud21015503
5Boston RiverBoston River210134-13
6Montevideo City TorqueTorque200235-20
7ProgresoProgreso200202-20
8Miramar Misiones200203-30
 
Apertura
1LiverpoolLiverpool159512291332
2NacionalNacional1594235161931
3Juventud159332315830
4PenarolPenarol158342117427
5Defensor SportingDefensor157351712524
6Racing de MontevideoRacing156541410423
7Boston RiverBoston River156451617-122
8Cerro Largo155641516-121
9Plaza ColoniaPlaza Colonia155461313019
10Montevideo City TorqueTorque154561622-617
11ProgresoProgreso153661727-1015
12CerroCerro153661320-714
13Montevideo WanderersWanderers152671217-512
14DanubioDanubio151951217-512
15Miramar Misiones153391624-812
16River PlateRiver Plate152491020-1010
> Uruguayan Primera Division Full Table


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