Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 9
Mar 30, 2025 at 7pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
1 - 2
Juventud

Morales (62' og.)
Mejia (78'), Lopez (84')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Rodriguez (20'), Chagas (90+4')
David Morosini Pereira (61'), Chagas (90+3')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Juventud.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: Liverpool 2-2 Nacional
Wednesday, March 26 at 7.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Juventud

All competitions
Last Game: Juventud 0-2 Penarol
Thursday, March 27 at 7.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 61.64%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Juventud had a probability of 16.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Juventud win it was 0-1 (5.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result
NacionalDrawJuventud
61.64% (0.479 0.48)21.91% (-0.139 -0.14)16.44% (-0.339 -0.34)
Both teams to score 48.61% (-0.261 -0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.46% (0.017000000000003 0.02)48.54% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.34% (0.016999999999999 0.02)70.66% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.77% (0.164 0.16)15.23% (-0.163 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.11% (0.306 0.31)43.89% (-0.306 -0.31)
Juventud Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.34% (-0.419 -0.42)42.66% (0.418 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.99% (-0.36 -0.36)79% (0.36 0.36)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 61.63%
    Juventud 16.44%
    Draw 21.91%
NacionalDrawJuventud
1-0 @ 12.22% (0.06 0.06)
2-0 @ 11.5% (0.12 0.12)
2-1 @ 9.8% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.22% (0.116 0.12)
3-1 @ 6.15% (0.029 0.03)
4-0 @ 3.4% (0.073 0.07)
4-1 @ 2.89% (0.03 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.62% (-0.018 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.28% (0.035 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.23% (-0.002 -0)
5-1 @ 1.09% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 61.63%
1-1 @ 10.41% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-0 @ 6.5% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-2 @ 4.18% (-0.052 -0.05)
Other @ 0.82%
Total : 21.91%
0-1 @ 5.54% (-0.068 -0.07)
1-2 @ 4.44% (-0.081 -0.08)
0-2 @ 2.36% (-0.056 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1.26% (-0.038 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.19% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 1.67%
Total : 16.44%

Head to Head
Dec 5, 2019 11.30pm
Juventud
0-3
Nacional

Munoz (6'), Mathias Bogado (47')
Bergessio (48' pen., 87'), Rodriguez (84')
Carballo (45')
Aug 25, 2019 7pm
Juventud
0-2
Nacional
Bergessio (43'), Cardacio (93')
Bergessio (54'), Carvalho (88')
Jun 1, 2019 12am
Gameweek 15
Nacional
1-0
Juventud
Bergessio (84')
Zunino (42'), Cotugno (72'), Cardacio (91')

Navarro (89')
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
Group 1
1Defensor SportingDefensor22005326
2Montevideo WanderersWanderers22003126
3PenarolPenarol21103124
4LiverpoolLiverpool20201102
5Cerro Largo201134-11
6CerroCerro201112-11
7Plaza ColoniaPlaza Colonia201113-21
8River PlateRiver Plate200213-20
Group 2
1Racing de MontevideoRacing22003036
2DanubioDanubio22003036
3NacionalNacional22003126
4Juventud21015503
5Boston RiverBoston River210134-13
6Montevideo City TorqueTorque200235-20
7ProgresoProgreso200202-20
8Miramar Misiones200203-30
 
Apertura
1LiverpoolLiverpool159512291332
2NacionalNacional1594235161931
3Juventud159332315830
4PenarolPenarol158342117427
5Defensor SportingDefensor157351712524
6Racing de MontevideoRacing156541410423
7Boston RiverBoston River156451617-122
8Cerro Largo155641516-121
9Plaza ColoniaPlaza Colonia155461313019
10Montevideo City TorqueTorque154561622-617
11ProgresoProgreso153661727-1015
12CerroCerro153661320-714
13Montevideo WanderersWanderers152671217-512
14DanubioDanubio151951217-512
15Miramar Misiones153391624-812
16River PlateRiver Plate152491020-1010
> Uruguayan Primera Division Full Table


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