Brasileiro | Gameweek 10

May 24, 2025 at 10.30pm UK

Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Fluminense
2 - 1
Vasco

Vegetti (42' og.), Guga (87')
Pablo Freytes (24'), Stum (29'), Fabio (29'), Guga (88')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Victor (25')
Carvalho (49'), Gustavo Marinho Ribeiro dos Santos (54'), Moura (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Brasileiro clash between Fluminense and Vasco da Gama, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fluminense

All competitions

Brasileiro

Last Game: Aparecidense 1-4 Fluminense
Wednesday, May 21 at 11.30pm in Copa do Brasil

Goals
for

Vasco da Gama

All competitions

Brasileiro

Last Game: Vasco 1-1 Operario PR (7-6 pen.)
Tuesday, May 20 at 11pm in Copa do Brasil

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 58.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 17.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.72%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.16%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.

Result
Fluminense	Draw	Vasco da Gama
58.66% ( -0.01)	23.73% ( -0)	17.61% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 45.54% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.13% (

0.01)

53.87% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.67% (

0.01)

75.33% (

-0.01)

Fluminense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.87% (

-0)

18.13%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.9%

49.09% (

-0)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.63% (

0.01)

44.37% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.58% (

0.01)

80.42% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Fluminense 58.65%

Vasco da Gama 17.61%

Draw 23.73%

Fluminense	Draw	Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 13.73% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 11.72% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.53% 3-0 @ 6.67% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.42% 4-0 @ 2.85% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.32% 3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0) 5-0 @ 0.97% 4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.29% Total : 58.65%	1-1 @ 11.16% 0-0 @ 8.05% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( 0) Other @ 0.65% Total : 23.73%	0-1 @ 6.54% 1-2 @ 4.54% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.66% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.23% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 1.6% Total : 17.61%