Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 73.69%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for FC Volendam had a probability of 11.48%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.4%) and 1-3 (8.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.29%), while for a FC Volendam win it was 2-1 (3.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Volendam | Draw | Ajax |
| 11.48% ( | 14.84% ( | 73.69% ( |
| Both teams to score 60.87% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.7% ( | 26.3% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.4% ( | 46.6% ( |
| FC Volendam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.85% ( | 35.15% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.1% ( | 71.9% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.87% ( | 6.14% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 76.74% ( | 23.26% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Volendam | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 3.29% ( 1-0 @ 2.26% ( 3-2 @ 1.6% ( 2-0 @ 1.18% ( 3-1 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 2% Total : 11.48% | 1-1 @ 6.29% ( 2-2 @ 4.59% ( 0-0 @ 2.16% ( 3-3 @ 1.49% ( Other @ 0.31% Total : 14.84% | 1-2 @ 8.78% ( 0-2 @ 8.4% ( 1-3 @ 8.17% ( 0-3 @ 7.82% ( 0-1 @ 6.02% ( 1-4 @ 5.7% ( 0-4 @ 5.45% ( 2-3 @ 4.27% ( 1-5 @ 3.18% ( 0-5 @ 3.04% ( 2-4 @ 2.98% ( 2-5 @ 1.66% ( 1-6 @ 1.48% ( 0-6 @ 1.42% ( 3-4 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 4.27% Total : 73.69% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 27 | 41 |
| 2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 39 |
| 3 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 35 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 35 |
| 5 | Ajax | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 34 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 32 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 27 |
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 18 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 22 |
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 19 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 19 |
| 13 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 39 | -20 | 19 |
| 14 | Vitesse | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 16 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 15 |
| 16 | FC VolendamVolendam | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 13 |
| 17 | Cambuur | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 28 | -18 | 12 |
| 18 | Groningen | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 37 | -19 | 12 |
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