

| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 17 | 15 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 6 | 8 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 6 | 18 | 18 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 6 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 17 | 15 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 50.84%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.3%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
| 26.96% ( | 22.2% ( | 50.84% ( |
| Both teams to score 63.22% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.47% ( | 36.53% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.32% ( | 58.68% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.07% ( | 25.93% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.07% ( | 60.93% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.36% ( | 14.64% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.22% ( | 42.78% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 6.65% ( 1-0 @ 5.13% ( 2-0 @ 3.46% ( 3-1 @ 2.99% ( 3-2 @ 2.87% ( 3-0 @ 1.56% ( 4-1 @ 1.01% ( 4-2 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 2.33% Total : 26.96% | 1-1 @ 9.85% ( 2-2 @ 6.38% ( 0-0 @ 3.8% ( 3-3 @ 1.84% ( Other @ 0.33% Total : 22.2% | 1-2 @ 9.46% ( 0-1 @ 7.3% ( 0-2 @ 7.01% ( 1-3 @ 6.06% ( 0-3 @ 4.49% ( 2-3 @ 4.09% ( 1-4 @ 2.91% ( 0-4 @ 2.16% ( 2-4 @ 1.96% ( 1-5 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 4.31% Total : 50.84% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 73 | 28 | 45 | 73 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 31 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 82 | 35 | 47 | 68 |
| 3 | Ajax | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 32 | 47 | 62 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 32 | 27 | 60 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 53 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 51 | 26 | 25 | 52 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 45 | 2 | 45 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 30 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 40 | 35 | 5 | 38 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 38 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 36 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 32 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 31 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 37 | 65 | -28 | 30 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 28 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 28 |
| 17 | Groningen | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 30 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 61 | -40 | 16 |
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