A dire away record - reading two wins and four goals from nine road trips so far - means Spezia are prime targets for Bologna to defeat and secure a first home success of 2023. The visitors have become harder to beat, but their Emilian hosts are overdue a victory at Dall'Ara and can edge a close-fought encounter.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 56.62%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 20.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.75%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
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