Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 35.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 35.72% ( | 26.46% ( | 37.82% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.64% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.82% ( | 52.18% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.11% ( | 73.89% ( |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.94% ( | 28.05% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.29% ( | 63.71% ( |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.17% ( | 26.83% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.87% ( | 62.13% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 1-0 @ 9.57% ( 2-1 @ 8% ( 2-0 @ 6.08% ( 3-1 @ 3.39% ( 3-0 @ 2.58% ( 3-2 @ 2.23% ( 4-1 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.8% Total : 35.72% | 1-1 @ 12.58% ( 0-0 @ 7.53% ( 2-2 @ 5.26% ( 3-3 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.46% | 0-1 @ 9.9% ( 1-2 @ 8.28% ( 0-2 @ 6.51% ( 1-3 @ 3.63% ( 0-3 @ 2.86% ( 2-3 @ 2.31% ( 1-4 @ 1.19% ( 0-4 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.19% Total : 37.82% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Twente | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 17 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 7 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Heracles | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Ajax | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | NECNijmegen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | PEC Zwolle | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 6 |
| 15 | Almere CityAlmere City | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4 |
| 16 | Vitesse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | FC VolendamVolendam | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 1 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
