Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 83.12%. A draw had a probability of 10.8% and a win for NEC had a probability of 6.05%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.8%) and 4-0 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.89%), while for a NEC win it was 1-2 (1.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | NEC |
| 83.12% ( | 10.83% ( | 6.05% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.83% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.87% ( | 25.13% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.92% ( | 45.08% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.63% ( | 4.37% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 81.96% ( | 18.04% ( |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.2% ( | 45.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.43% ( | 81.57% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | NEC |
| 3-0 @ 10.23% ( 2-0 @ 9.8% ( 4-0 @ 8.01% ( 3-1 @ 7.99% ( 2-1 @ 7.66% ( 1-0 @ 6.26% ( 4-1 @ 6.26% ( 5-0 @ 5.02% ( 5-1 @ 3.92% ( 3-2 @ 3.12% ( 6-0 @ 2.62% ( 4-2 @ 2.44% ( 6-1 @ 2.05% ( 5-2 @ 1.53% ( 7-0 @ 1.17% ( 7-1 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 4.13% Total : 83.11% | 1-1 @ 4.89% ( 2-2 @ 2.99% ( 0-0 @ 2% ( Other @ 0.95% Total : 10.83% | 1-2 @ 1.91% ( 0-1 @ 1.56% ( Other @ 2.58% Total : 6.05% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 73 | 28 | 45 | 73 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 81 | 35 | 46 | 65 |
| 3 | Ajax | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 32 | 47 | 62 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 32 | 27 | 60 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 53 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 51 | 26 | 25 | 52 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 46 | 45 | 1 | 45 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 30 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 39 | 34 | 5 | 38 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 38 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 36 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 32 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 31 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 30 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 28 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 28 |
| 17 | Groningen | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 30 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 60 | -39 | 16 |
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