

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 50.66%. A win for Fulham had a probability of 25.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Fulham win was 1-2 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Fulham |
| 50.66% ( | 23.6% ( | 25.73% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.07% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.87% ( | 44.13% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.49% ( | 66.51% ( |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.51% ( | 17.49% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.02% ( | 47.98% |
| Fulham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.16% ( | 30.83% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.89% ( | 67.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Fulham |
| 2-1 @ 9.64% ( 1-0 @ 9.4% ( 2-0 @ 8.2% ( 3-1 @ 5.61% 3-0 @ 4.77% ( 3-2 @ 3.3% ( 4-1 @ 2.44% 4-0 @ 2.08% ( 4-2 @ 1.44% Other @ 3.79% Total : 50.66% | 1-1 @ 11.06% 2-2 @ 5.67% ( 0-0 @ 5.39% ( 3-3 @ 1.29% Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.6% | 1-2 @ 6.51% ( 0-1 @ 6.34% 0-2 @ 3.73% ( 1-3 @ 2.55% ( 2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0-3 @ 1.46% ( Other @ 2.91% Total : 25.73% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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