

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 57.38%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 19.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (6.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
| 57.38% ( | 23.28% ( | 19.34% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.79% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.25% ( | 49.75% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.24% ( | 71.76% ( |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.9% ( | 17.1% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.7% ( | 47.3% ( |
| Nottingham Forest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.06% ( | 39.93% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.41% ( | 76.59% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
| 1-0 @ 12.06% ( 2-0 @ 10.64% ( 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 3-0 @ 6.27% ( 3-1 @ 5.76% ( 4-0 @ 2.77% ( 3-2 @ 2.64% ( 4-1 @ 2.54% ( 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 5-0 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.77% Total : 57.37% | 1-1 @ 11.07% ( 0-0 @ 6.83% ( 2-2 @ 4.49% ( Other @ 0.9% Total : 23.28% | 0-1 @ 6.27% ( 1-2 @ 5.08% ( 0-2 @ 2.88% ( 1-3 @ 1.56% ( 2-3 @ 1.37% ( Other @ 2.19% Total : 19.34% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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