Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 36.52%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 35.3% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.77%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (11.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Barrow | Draw | Northampton Town | 
| 36.52% | 28.18% (  0) | 35.3% (  -0.01) | 
| Both teams to score 47.26% (  -0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 41.09% (  -0.01) | 58.91% (  0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 20.6% (  -0.01) | 79.4% (  0.01) | 
| Barrow Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 69.14% (  -0.01) | 30.86% (  0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.85% (  -0.01) | 67.15% (  0) | 
| Northampton Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 68.36% (  -0.01) | 31.64% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.95% (  -0.02) | 68.05% (  0.01) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Barrow | Draw | Northampton Town | 
| 1-0 @ 11.48% (  0.01) 2-1 @ 7.77% (  -0) 2-0 @ 6.75% (  0) 3-1 @ 3.04% 3-0 @ 2.64% 3-2 @ 1.75% (  -0) Other @ 3.09% Total : 36.52% | 1-1 @ 13.21% 0-0 @ 9.77% (  0.01) 2-2 @ 4.47% (  -0) Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.18% | 0-1 @ 11.23% 1-2 @ 7.6% (  -0) 0-2 @ 6.47% (  -0) 1-3 @ 2.92% (  -0) 0-3 @ 2.48% (  -0) 2-3 @ 1.71% (  -0) Other @ 2.89% Total : 35.29% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 71 | 
| 2 | Stevenage | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 46 | 28 | 18 | 60 | 
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 54 | 34 | 20 | 58 | 
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 33 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 56 | 
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 54 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 54 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 53 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 51 | 42 | 9 | 52 | 
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 50 | 
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 48 | 
| 11 | BarrowBarrow | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 48 | 
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 47 | 
| 13 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 32 | 14 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 46 | 
| 14 | Walsall | 31 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 43 | 
| 15 | AFC Wimbledon | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 42 | 
| 16 | Grimsby Town | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 38 | 
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 38 | 
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 37 | 
| 19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 35 | 
| 20 | Gillingham | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 33 | 
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 31 | 
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 62 | -26 | 28 | 
| 23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 31 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 26 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 27 | 52 | -25 | 22 | 
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