Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 64.08%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Chesterfield had a probability of 15.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Chesterfield win it was 0-1 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Wrexham in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Wrexham.
| Result | ||
| Wrexham | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 64.08% ( | 20.11% ( | 15.8% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.04% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.1% ( | 41.89% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.7% ( | 64.3% ( |
| Wrexham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.62% ( | 12.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.75% ( | 38.24% ( |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.54% ( | 39.46% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.85% ( | 76.15% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Wrexham | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 2-0 @ 10.65% ( 1-0 @ 10.2% ( 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 3-0 @ 7.42% ( 3-1 @ 6.9% ( 4-0 @ 3.88% ( 4-1 @ 3.61% ( 3-2 @ 3.21% ( 4-2 @ 1.68% ( 5-0 @ 1.62% ( 5-1 @ 1.51% ( Other @ 3.48% Total : 64.07% | 1-1 @ 9.49% ( 0-0 @ 4.88% ( 2-2 @ 4.61% ( 3-3 @ 1% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.11% | 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 1-2 @ 4.41% ( 0-2 @ 2.11% ( 2-3 @ 1.43% ( 1-3 @ 1.37% ( Other @ 1.94% Total : 15.8% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Wrexham | 40 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 105 | 36 | 69 | 100 |
| 2 | Notts County | 41 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 103 | 36 | 67 | 97 |
| 3 | Woking | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 65 | 41 | 24 | 72 |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 67 | 44 | 23 | 72 |
| 5 | Barnet | 39 | 20 | 7 | 12 | 72 | 62 | 10 | 67 |
| 6 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 40 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 33 | 15 | 65 |
| 7 | Eastleigh | 40 | 19 | 7 | 14 | 48 | 43 | 5 | 64 |
| 8 | Bromley | 40 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 59 | 49 | 10 | 61 |
| 9 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 40 | 16 | 8 | 16 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 56 |
| 10 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 40 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 56 |
| 11 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 40 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 59 | 58 | 1 | 55 |
| 12 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 40 | 16 | 7 | 17 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 55 |
| 13 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 40 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 52 |
| 14 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 41 | 13 | 9 | 19 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 48 |
| 15 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 47 |
| 16 | Halifax TownHalifax | 39 | 12 | 10 | 17 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 46 |
| 17 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 40 | 13 | 7 | 20 | 58 | 84 | -26 | 46 |
| 18 | York City | 40 | 11 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 43 |
| 19 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 40 | 12 | 7 | 21 | 54 | 68 | -14 | 43 |
| 20 | Gateshead | 37 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 40 |
| 21 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 39 | 7 | 17 | 15 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 38 |
| 22 | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 40 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 37 |
| 23 | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 41 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 46 | 76 | -30 | 34 |
| 24 | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 41 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 43 | 90 | -47 | 24 |
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