Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 54.21%. A win for Aldershot Town had a probability of 22.99% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.53%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Aldershot Town win was 2-1 (5.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aldershot Town | Draw | Wrexham |
| 22.99% ( | 22.79% ( | 54.21% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.7% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.81% ( | 43.19% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.41% ( | 65.59% ( |
| Aldershot Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.39% ( | 32.61% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.85% ( | 69.15% |
| Wrexham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.13% ( | 15.87% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.91% ( | 45.08% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Aldershot Town | Draw | Wrexham |
| 2-1 @ 5.98% ( 1-0 @ 5.8% ( 2-0 @ 3.25% ( 3-1 @ 2.23% ( 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 3-0 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 2.46% Total : 22.99% | 1-1 @ 10.67% ( 2-2 @ 5.51% ( 0-0 @ 5.18% ( 3-3 @ 1.26% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.79% | 1-2 @ 9.83% ( 0-1 @ 9.53% ( 0-2 @ 8.77% ( 1-3 @ 6.03% ( 0-3 @ 5.38% ( 2-3 @ 3.38% ( 1-4 @ 2.77% ( 0-4 @ 2.48% ( 2-4 @ 1.55% ( 1-5 @ 1.02% ( 0-5 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.57% Total : 54.21% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Wrexham | 39 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 100 | 35 | 65 | 97 |
| 2 | Notts County | 40 | 28 | 10 | 2 | 101 | 36 | 65 | 94 |
| 3 | Woking | 39 | 21 | 8 | 10 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 71 |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 39 | 21 | 8 | 10 | 67 | 44 | 23 | 71 |
| 5 | Barnet | 38 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 71 | 61 | 10 | 66 |
| 6 | Eastleigh | 40 | 19 | 7 | 14 | 48 | 43 | 5 | 64 |
| 7 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 38 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 62 |
| 8 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 39 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 59 | 54 | 5 | 55 |
| 9 | Bromley | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 55 |
| 10 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 56 | 62 | -6 | 55 |
| 11 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 39 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 49 | 61 | -12 | 55 |
| 12 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 53 |
| 13 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 39 | 14 | 10 | 15 | 59 | 69 | -10 | 52 |
| 14 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 40 | 13 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 47 |
| 15 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 46 |
| 16 | Halifax TownHalifax | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 43 |
| 17 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 39 | 12 | 7 | 20 | 54 | 66 | -12 | 43 |
| 18 | York City | 39 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 19 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 55 | 84 | -29 | 40 |
| 20 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 38 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 38 |
| 21 | Gateshead | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 37 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 39 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 46 | 75 | -29 | 33 |
| 23 | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 31 |
| 24 | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 39 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 41 | 83 | -42 | 24 |
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