Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Aldershot Town had a probability of 32.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Aldershot Town win was 1-0 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aldershot Town | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 32.7% ( | 25.46% ( | 41.85% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.37% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.6% ( | 48.4% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.46% ( | 70.54% ( |
| Aldershot Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.91% ( | 28.09% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.24% ( | 63.76% ( |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77% ( | 23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.2% ( | 56.8% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Aldershot Town | Draw | Chesterfield |
| 1-0 @ 8.2% ( 2-1 @ 7.65% ( 2-0 @ 5.21% ( 3-1 @ 3.24% ( 3-2 @ 2.38% ( 3-0 @ 2.2% ( 4-1 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.78% Total : 32.7% | 1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0-0 @ 6.46% ( 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 3-3 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.45% | 0-1 @ 9.5% ( 1-2 @ 8.86% ( 0-2 @ 6.98% ( 1-3 @ 4.34% ( 0-3 @ 3.42% ( 2-3 @ 2.76% ( 1-4 @ 1.6% ( 0-4 @ 1.26% ( 2-4 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 2.13% Total : 41.85% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Wrexham | 38 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 97 | 35 | 62 | 94 |
| 2 | Notts County | 39 | 27 | 10 | 2 | 97 | 36 | 61 | 91 |
| 3 | Woking | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 68 |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 68 |
| 5 | Barnet | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 69 | 61 | 8 | 63 |
| 6 | Eastleigh | 39 | 19 | 6 | 14 | 48 | 43 | 5 | 63 |
| 7 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 37 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 61 |
| 8 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 49 | 59 | -10 | 55 |
| 9 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 38 | 15 | 9 | 14 | 58 | 53 | 5 | 54 |
| 10 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 37 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 53 |
| 11 | Bromley | 37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 51 | 47 | 4 | 52 |
| 12 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 37 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 52 |
| 13 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 58 | 69 | -11 | 49 |
| 14 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 39 | 13 | 8 | 18 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 47 |
| 15 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 45 |
| 16 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 52 | 63 | -11 | 43 |
| 17 | Halifax TownHalifax | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 43 |
| 18 | York City | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 42 |
| 19 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 37 | 7 | 17 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 38 |
| 20 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 37 | 10 | 7 | 20 | 52 | 83 | -31 | 37 |
| 21 | Gateshead | 35 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 34 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 38 | 8 | 9 | 21 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 33 |
| 23 | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 37 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 43 | 67 | -24 | 31 |
| 24 | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 38 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 40 | 81 | -41 | 24 |
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