Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 63.31%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Scunthorpe United had a probability of 16.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 1-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Scunthorpe United win it was 1-2 (4.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chesterfield | Draw | Scunthorpe United |
| 63.31% ( | 19.93% ( | 16.76% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.87% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.76% ( | 39.23% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.43% ( | 61.57% ( |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.2% ( | 11.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.99% ( | 37.01% |
| Scunthorpe United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.34% ( | 36.66% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.55% ( | 73.45% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Chesterfield | Draw | Scunthorpe United |
| 2-1 @ 9.91% 2-0 @ 9.88% ( 1-0 @ 9.24% ( 3-1 @ 7.06% 3-0 @ 7.04% ( 4-1 @ 3.77% 4-0 @ 3.76% ( 3-2 @ 3.54% ( 4-2 @ 1.89% ( 5-1 @ 1.61% 5-0 @ 1.61% ( Other @ 3.98% Total : 63.31% | 1-1 @ 9.28% 2-2 @ 4.97% ( 0-0 @ 4.32% ( 3-3 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 0.17% Total : 19.93% | 1-2 @ 4.65% ( 0-1 @ 4.34% 0-2 @ 2.18% ( 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 1-3 @ 1.56% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 16.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Notts County | 33 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 84 | 30 | 54 | 80 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 31 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 75 |
| 3 | Woking | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 58 |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 53 | 37 | 16 | 54 |
| 5 | Barnet | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 53 |
| 6 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 50 |
| 7 | Bromley | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 46 | 38 | 8 | 47 |
| 8 | Eastleigh | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 36 | 2 | 47 |
| 9 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 45 |
| 10 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 44 |
| 11 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 46 | 45 | 1 | 41 |
| 13 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 39 |
| 14 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 33 | 11 | 5 | 17 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 38 |
| 15 | Halifax TownHalifax | 31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 36 |
| 16 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 35 |
| 17 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 33 |
| 18 | York City | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 32 |
| 19 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 29 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 32 |
| 20 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 30 |
| 21 | Gateshead | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 29 |
| 22 | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 29 |
| 23 | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 31 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 38 | 61 | -23 | 26 |
| 24 | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 32 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 35 | 70 | -35 | 22 |
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