Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 38.98%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 36.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 38.98% ( | 24.62% ( | 36.4% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.11% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.1% ( | 43.9% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.71% ( | 66.29% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.56% ( | 22.44% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.02% ( | 55.98% ( |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.21% ( | 23.79% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.05% ( | 57.95% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 8.56% ( 1-0 @ 7.98% ( 2-0 @ 5.96% ( 3-1 @ 4.26% ( 3-2 @ 3.06% ( 3-0 @ 2.97% ( 4-1 @ 1.59% ( 4-2 @ 1.14% ( 4-0 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 38.98% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( 2-2 @ 6.15% ( 0-0 @ 5.34% ( 3-3 @ 1.47% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.61% | 1-2 @ 8.23% ( 0-1 @ 7.67% ( 0-2 @ 5.51% ( 1-3 @ 3.94% ( 2-3 @ 2.94% ( 0-3 @ 2.64% ( 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 2-4 @ 1.06% ( 0-4 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.07% Total : 36.4% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 41 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 37 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 35 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 29 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 29 |
| 8 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
| 10 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 26 |
| 11 | Macarthur | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 25 |
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