Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 79.73%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Leicester City had a probability of 7.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.08%) and 3-1 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Leicester City win it was 1-2 (2.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Leicester City | 
| 79.73% (  0.05) | 12.33% (  -0.02) | 7.94% (  -0.02) | 
| Both teams to score 56.32% (  0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 74.96% (  0.06) | 25.04% (  -0.05) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 55.03% (  0.07) | 44.97% (  -0.07) | 
| Manchester City Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 95.13% (  0.02) | 4.88% (  -0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 80.4% (  0.05) | 19.6% (  -0.05) | 
| Leicester City Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 59.2% (  0) | 40.8% (  0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.62% | 77.38% (  0.01) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Manchester City | Draw | Leicester City | 
| 3-0 @ 9.14% 2-0 @ 9.08% (  -0.01) 3-1 @ 8.19% 2-1 @ 8.14% (  -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.9% (  0.01) 4-1 @ 6.19% (  0.01) 1-0 @ 6.01% (  -0.01) 5-0 @ 4.17% (  0.01) 5-1 @ 3.74% (  0.01) 3-2 @ 3.67% 4-2 @ 2.77% (  0) 6-0 @ 2.1% (  0.01) 6-1 @ 1.88% (  0.01) 5-2 @ 1.68% (  0) 7-0 @ 0.91% (  0) Other @ 5.16% Total : 79.73% | 1-1 @ 5.39% (  -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.65% (  -0) 0-0 @ 1.99% (  -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 0.21% Total : 12.33% | 1-2 @ 2.42% (  -0) 0-1 @ 1.78% (  -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.09% (  -0) Other @ 2.66% Total : 7.95% | 
 
 
 
 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 | 
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 | 
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 | 
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 | 
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 | 
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 | 
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 | 
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 | 
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 | 
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 | 
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 | 
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 | 
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 | 
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 | 
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 | 
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 | 
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 | 
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 | 
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 | 
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 | 
| > Premier League Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
