Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 38.58%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 37.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
