Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 47.31%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.89%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
