

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 51.67%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 22.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.01%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Arouca |
| 51.67% ( | 25.35% ( | 22.97% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.65% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.18% ( | 53.82% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.71% ( | 75.29% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.15% ( | 20.84% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.47% ( | 53.52% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.46% ( | 38.53% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.72% ( | 75.27% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 12.59% 2-0 @ 9.87% ( 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 3-0 @ 5.16% ( 3-1 @ 4.92% ( 3-2 @ 2.35% ( 4-0 @ 2.02% ( 4-1 @ 1.93% ( 4-2 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.48% Total : 51.67% | 1-1 @ 12.01% ( 0-0 @ 8.03% ( 2-2 @ 4.49% ( Other @ 0.82% Total : 25.35% | 0-1 @ 7.66% ( 1-2 @ 5.73% ( 0-2 @ 3.65% ( 1-3 @ 1.82% ( 2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0-3 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 1.52% Total : 22.97% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 26 | 59 | 78 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 82 | 26 | 56 | 78 |
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 60 | 29 | 31 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 53 | 27 | 26 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 46 | 33 | 13 | 54 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 51 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 36 | 5 | 44 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 36 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 36 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 34 |
| 13 | Nacional | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 45 | -21 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 24 |
| 17 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 53 | -31 | 24 |
| 18 | AVS | 32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 57 | -33 | 24 |
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