Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 46.28%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.17%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 2-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 29.33% ( | 24.39% ( | 46.28% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.31% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.87% ( | 45.13% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.52% ( | 67.48% ( |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.3% ( | 28.7% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.47% ( | 64.53% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.38% ( | 19.62% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.43% ( | 51.57% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 2-1 @ 7.15% ( 1-0 @ 7.03% ( 2-0 @ 4.39% ( 3-1 @ 2.97% ( 3-2 @ 2.42% 3-0 @ 1.83% 4-1 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.62% Total : 29.33% | 1-1 @ 11.44% 2-2 @ 5.82% 0-0 @ 5.63% ( 3-3 @ 1.31% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.39% | 1-2 @ 9.32% ( 0-1 @ 9.17% ( 0-2 @ 7.47% ( 1-3 @ 5.06% ( 0-3 @ 4.05% ( 2-3 @ 3.16% ( 1-4 @ 2.06% ( 0-4 @ 1.65% ( 2-4 @ 1.29% ( Other @ 3.04% Total : 46.28% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
| 3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 35 |
| 8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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