

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 64.37%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Macarthur had a probability of 16.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.21%) and 0-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.65%), while for a Macarthur win it was 2-1 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 16.56% ( | 19.07% ( | 64.37% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.61% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.52% ( | 35.47% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.48% ( | 57.51% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.43% ( | 34.57% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.71% ( | 71.29% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.58% ( | 10.42% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 66.01% ( | 33.98% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 4.6% ( 1-0 @ 3.83% ( 2-0 @ 2.03% ( 3-2 @ 1.84% ( 3-1 @ 1.63% ( Other @ 2.64% Total : 16.56% | 1-1 @ 8.65% ( 2-2 @ 5.2% ( 0-0 @ 3.6% ( 3-3 @ 1.39% ( Other @ 0.23% Total : 19.07% | 1-2 @ 9.78% ( 0-2 @ 9.21% ( 0-1 @ 8.15% ( 1-3 @ 7.38% ( 0-3 @ 6.94% ( 1-4 @ 4.17% ( 0-4 @ 3.93% ( 2-3 @ 3.92% ( 2-4 @ 2.21% ( 1-5 @ 1.89% ( 0-5 @ 1.78% ( 2-5 @ 1% ( Other @ 4.02% Total : 64.37% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 61 | 32 | 29 | 55 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 35 | 20 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 38 |
| 6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 35 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 32 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 30 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 29 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Macarthur | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
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