

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53.77%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 23.95% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.47%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 23.95% ( | 22.27% ( | 53.77% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.69% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.23% ( | 39.77% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.87% ( | 62.13% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.08% ( | 29.92% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.97% ( | 66.02% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.18% ( | 14.82% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.89% ( | 43.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 6.16% ( 1-0 @ 5.35% ( 2-0 @ 3.23% ( 3-1 @ 2.48% ( 3-2 @ 2.37% ( 3-0 @ 1.3% ( Other @ 3.07% Total : 23.95% | 1-1 @ 10.21% ( 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0-0 @ 4.43% ( 3-3 @ 1.51% ( Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.27% | 1-2 @ 9.75% ( 0-1 @ 8.47% ( 0-2 @ 8.08% ( 1-3 @ 6.21% ( 0-3 @ 5.14% ( 2-3 @ 3.75% ( 1-4 @ 2.96% ( 0-4 @ 2.46% ( 2-4 @ 1.79% ( 1-5 @ 1.13% ( 0-5 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 3.11% Total : 53.77% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 2 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Macarthur | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 12 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
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