Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 56.79%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 21.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.45%) and 1-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 56.79% ( | 21.48% ( | 21.72% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.49% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.31% ( | 38.69% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39% ( | 60.99% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.5% ( | 13.49% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.47% ( | 40.52% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.77% ( | 31.23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.42% ( | 67.57% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 9.84% ( 2-0 @ 8.45% ( 1-0 @ 8.44% ( 3-1 @ 6.57% ( 3-0 @ 5.64% ( 3-2 @ 3.82% ( 4-1 @ 3.29% ( 4-0 @ 2.83% ( 4-2 @ 1.91% ( 5-1 @ 1.32% ( 5-0 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 3.56% Total : 56.8% | 1-1 @ 9.82% ( 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0-0 @ 4.21% ( 3-3 @ 1.48% ( Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.48% | 1-2 @ 5.72% ( 0-1 @ 4.9% ( 0-2 @ 2.85% ( 2-3 @ 2.22% ( 1-3 @ 2.22% ( 0-3 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 2.7% Total : 21.72% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 55 | 29 | 26 | 49 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 41 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 48 | 33 | 15 | 38 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 38 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 32 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 32 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 29 |
| 8 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 28 |
| 10 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 27 |
| 11 | Macarthur | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 25 |
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