

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.92%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 32.49% ( | 24.87% ( | 42.64% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.3% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.14% ( | 45.86% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.83% ( | 68.17% ( |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.02% ( | 26.98% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.68% ( | 62.33% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.48% ( | 21.53% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.41% ( | 54.59% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 7.66% ( 1-0 @ 7.61% ( 2-0 @ 4.98% ( 3-1 @ 3.34% ( 3-2 @ 2.57% ( 3-0 @ 2.18% ( 4-1 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 3.07% Total : 32.49% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0-0 @ 5.81% ( 3-3 @ 1.31% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.86% | 1-2 @ 8.97% ( 0-1 @ 8.92% ( 0-2 @ 6.85% ( 1-3 @ 4.6% ( 0-3 @ 3.51% ( 2-3 @ 3.01% ( 1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0-4 @ 1.35% ( 2-4 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 2.52% Total : 42.64% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 3 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Macarthur | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 12 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
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