

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.71%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 40.84% | 24.98% | 34.17% |
| Both teams to score 57.42% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.07% | 45.92% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.77% | 68.23% |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.59% | 22.41% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.07% | 55.93% |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.01% | 25.99% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.99% | 61.01% |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 8.78% 1-0 @ 8.71% 2-0 @ 6.51% 3-1 @ 4.38% 3-0 @ 3.25% 3-2 @ 2.95% 4-1 @ 1.64% 4-0 @ 1.21% 4-2 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.31% Total : 40.84% | 1-1 @ 11.73% 2-2 @ 5.91% 0-0 @ 5.82% 3-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.97% | 1-2 @ 7.91% 0-1 @ 7.85% 0-2 @ 5.29% 1-3 @ 3.55% 2-3 @ 2.66% 0-3 @ 2.38% 1-4 @ 1.2% Other @ 3.35% Total : 34.17% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 3 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Macarthur | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 12 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
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