

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 53.75%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 23.28% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Macarthur |
| 53.75% ( | 22.97% ( | 23.28% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.45% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.32% ( | 43.68% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.93% ( | 66.07% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.8% ( | 16.21% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.31% ( | 45.7% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.37% | 32.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.82% | 69.18% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 1-0 @ 9.62% ( 2-0 @ 8.76% ( 3-1 @ 5.95% ( 3-0 @ 5.31% ( 3-2 @ 3.33% ( 4-1 @ 2.71% ( 4-0 @ 2.42% ( 4-2 @ 1.52% ( 5-1 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 3.35% Total : 53.75% | 1-1 @ 10.77% 2-2 @ 5.49% 0-0 @ 5.29% ( 3-3 @ 1.24% ( Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.96% | 1-2 @ 6.03% ( 0-1 @ 5.92% ( 0-2 @ 3.32% ( 1-3 @ 2.25% ( 2-3 @ 2.05% 0-3 @ 1.24% ( Other @ 2.46% Total : 23.28% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 23 |
| 2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Macarthur | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 25 | -17 | 6 |
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