Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.39%) and 2-0 (6.01%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 41.57% ( | 23.81% ( | 34.62% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.78% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.7% ( | 40.3% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.33% ( | 62.67% ( |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.33% ( | 19.67% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.34% ( | 51.66% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.91% ( | 23.09% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.06% ( | 56.94% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 1-0 @ 7.39% ( 2-0 @ 6.01% ( 3-1 @ 4.77% ( 3-2 @ 3.5% ( 3-0 @ 3.26% ( 4-1 @ 1.94% ( 4-2 @ 1.42% ( 4-0 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 3.17% Total : 41.57% | 1-1 @ 10.82% ( 2-2 @ 6.45% ( 0-0 @ 4.54% ( 3-3 @ 1.71% ( Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.8% | 1-2 @ 7.93% ( 0-1 @ 6.66% ( 0-2 @ 4.88% ( 1-3 @ 3.88% ( 2-3 @ 3.15% ( 0-3 @ 2.38% ( 1-4 @ 1.42% ( 2-4 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 3.16% Total : 34.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 55 | 29 | 26 | 49 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 41 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 48 | 33 | 15 | 38 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 38 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 32 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 32 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 29 |
| 8 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 28 |
| 10 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 27 |
| 11 | Macarthur | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 25 |
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