Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.