

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 64.85%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 15.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.38%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 64.85% ( | 19.87% ( | 15.28% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.6% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.15% ( | 41.84% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.75% ( | 64.25% ( |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.84% ( | 12.15% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.24% ( | 37.76% ( |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.88% ( | 40.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.24% ( | 76.76% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-0 @ 10.82% ( 1-0 @ 10.27% ( 2-1 @ 9.89% 3-0 @ 7.61% ( 3-1 @ 6.95% ( 4-0 @ 4.01% ( 4-1 @ 3.66% ( 3-2 @ 3.17% ( 5-0 @ 1.69% ( 4-2 @ 1.67% ( 5-1 @ 1.54% ( Other @ 3.55% Total : 64.84% | 1-1 @ 9.38% ( 0-0 @ 4.87% ( 2-2 @ 4.52% ( 3-3 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.87% | 0-1 @ 4.45% ( 1-2 @ 4.29% ( 0-2 @ 2.03% ( 2-3 @ 1.38% ( 1-3 @ 1.31% ( Other @ 1.83% Total : 15.28% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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