Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 77.6%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 7.93%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.78%) and 1-0 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.88%), while for a Crystal Palace win it was 0-1 (2.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.