Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 52.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 23.72%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.71%) and 0-2 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-0 (6.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.