

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 58.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 19.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.09%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.6%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Braga |
| 19.47% ( | 22.35% ( | 58.17% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.91% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.29% ( | 45.71% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.97% ( | 68.03% ( |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.55% ( | 37.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.77% ( | 74.23% ( |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.59% ( | 15.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.77% ( | 44.23% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 5.67% ( 2-1 @ 5.21% ( 2-0 @ 2.78% ( 3-1 @ 1.7% ( 3-2 @ 1.59% ( 3-0 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 1.6% Total : 19.47% | 1-1 @ 10.6% ( 0-0 @ 5.77% ( 2-2 @ 4.87% ( 3-3 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.35% | 0-1 @ 10.79% ( 0-2 @ 10.09% ( 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0-3 @ 6.29% ( 1-3 @ 6.18% ( 2-3 @ 3.04% ( 0-4 @ 2.94% ( 1-4 @ 2.89% ( 2-4 @ 1.42% ( 0-5 @ 1.1% ( 1-5 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.44% Total : 58.17% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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