Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.4%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 8.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.2%) and 3-0 (10.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.