

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 69.13%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 12.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.08%) and 1-2 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.59%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (3.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Porto in this match.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Porto |
| 12.69% ( | 18.18% ( | 69.13% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.33% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.05% ( | 39.95% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.69% ( | 62.32% ( |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.34% ( | 42.66% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21% ( | 79.01% ( |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.52% ( | 10.48% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.88% ( | 34.12% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 3.81% ( 2-1 @ 3.66% ( 2-0 @ 1.62% ( 3-2 @ 1.17% 3-1 @ 1.04% Other @ 1.39% Total : 12.69% | 1-1 @ 8.59% ( 0-0 @ 4.47% ( 2-2 @ 4.13% ( Other @ 1% Total : 18.18% | 0-2 @ 11.37% 0-1 @ 10.08% 1-2 @ 9.69% ( 0-3 @ 8.55% ( 1-3 @ 7.29% ( 0-4 @ 4.82% ( 1-4 @ 4.11% ( 2-3 @ 3.1% 0-5 @ 2.18% ( 1-5 @ 1.85% ( 2-4 @ 1.75% Other @ 4.32% Total : 69.12% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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