

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 37.99%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Famalicao | 
| 34.92% ( | 27.08% ( | 37.99% ( | 
| Both teams to score 50.57% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 45.23% ( | 54.77% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 23.92% ( | 76.08% ( | 
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 70.19% ( | 29.81% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.11% ( | 65.89% ( | 
| Famalicao Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 72.04% ( | 27.95% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.41% ( | 63.58% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Famalicao | 
| 1-0 @ 10.08% ( 2-1 @ 7.78% ( 2-0 @ 6.1% ( 3-1 @ 3.14% ( 3-0 @ 2.46% ( 3-2 @ 2% ( 4-1 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.4% Total : 34.92%  | 1-1 @ 12.85% ( 0-0 @ 8.33% ( 2-2 @ 4.96% ( Other @ 0.94% Total : 27.08%  | 0-1 @ 10.62% ( 1-2 @ 8.19% ( 0-2 @ 6.77% ( 1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0-3 @ 2.88% ( 2-3 @ 2.11% ( 1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0-4 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 1.92% Total : 37.99%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 33 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 79 | 20 | 59 | 84 | 
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 | 
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 | 
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 31 | 38 | 71 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 | 
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 | 
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 | 
| 9 | Casa Pia | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 41 | 
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 | 
| 11 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 | 
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 | 
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 | 
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 34 | 
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 32 | 
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 | 
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 | 
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 | 
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